THE LA REPORT: PREDICTION: OBAMA SHOULD WIN THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2008, BASED ON 16-YEAR CYCLE OF NEW NON-INCUMBENT DEMOCRATS WINNING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SINCE 1944

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You are here: Home > politics > PREDICTION: OBAMA SHOULD WIN THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2008, BASED ON 16-YEAR CYCLE OF NEW NON-INCUMBENT DEMOCRATS WINNING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SINCE 1944

August 31, 2008

PREDICTION: OBAMA SHOULD WIN THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2008, BASED ON 16-YEAR CYCLE OF NEW NON-INCUMBENT DEMOCRATS WINNING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SINCE 1944

After 1944, a new, non-incumbent Democrat has won the White House every 16 years.

Twice during the past 64 years, a Democratic VP took over the White House when the President died, then went on to win as an incumbent. We view that as an extension of the late President's administration.

1944: Roosevelt-Truman wins. After them, no new Democrat in the White House till...

1960: Kennedy-Johnson wins. After them, no new Democrat in the White House till...

1976: Carter wins. After him, no new Democrat in the White House till...

1992: Clinton wins. After him, no new Democrat in the White House till...

2008: Obama wins (?)

So, the pattern is clear. Like clockwork, since 1944, it always takes 16 years for a new non-incumbent Democrat to win the Presidency. This makes 2008 a sure win for Democrat Obama.